Why rate cuts are on the table

Over 2024–2025 inflation in several advanced economies eased toward targets, and some labour-market measures started to show softening. That combination gives central banks room to start trimming policy rates from the highs they set to fight the inflation surge of 2022–24. But central banks are signalling caution: they want evidence that inflation is sustainably near target and that labour markets won’t re-heat before easing further. You can see this tension in recent speeches and minutes. 

The Fed (U.S.)

• Where we are: The Fed had cut 25 bps in September 2025 and markets / some Fed officials expected another cut in late October 2025. Fed speakers are split: some favour steady, cautious 25-bp steps; a minority have pushed for larger moves. Markets (Fed funds futures / CME FedWatch) price the odds of further cuts but watch labour and inflation closely. 

• Most likely near-term path (base case): another 25 bps cut at the October 29, 2025 FOMC meeting (bringing the target range lower by 0.25%) with further gradual 25-bp moves only if core inflation stays close to 2% and employment softens further. Some policymakers explicitly oppose 50-bp jumps — so expect measured trimming, not a rapid easing binge. 

The ECB (euro area)

• Where we are: The ECB’s public materials around October 2025 show the Governing Council viewing rates as “in a good place,” but policymakers differ; some see cuts as the next logical move while others urge caution. Market pricing trimmed the probability of an immediate cut at one meeting, but commentary from officials (and recent reporting) suggested cuts are likely to be the next directional move — timing depends on euro-area inflation persistence. 

• Most likely path: smaller, gradual cuts (25 bps steps) spaced out and conditional on inflation falling closer to 2% across member states. The ECB is very sensitive to regional differences (food/energy, services) so it will be careful. 

Bank of England (UK)

• Where we are: The IMF and other bodies have advised caution — UK inflation was expected to remain relatively high compared with peers, so the BoE is slower to cut. Market pricing in October 2025 suggested very limited near-term cuts. 

• Most likely path: one or a couple of modest cuts (25 bps each) but delayed relative to the Fed or ECB unless UK inflation comes down faster than expected.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) & some EM central banks

• Where we are (RBI): The RBI’s October 2025 minutes explicitly said there was room for future rate cuts as inflation forecasts were revised down and growth outlook improved; the RBI paused in October to assess the impact of previous cuts. India had already cut rates through 2025, giving policymakers flexibility to ease further, but they’re cautious on timing. 

• EMs more broadly: Emerging market central banks vary: some with low inflation can cut sooner; others (with sticky food inflation or currency pressures) will be more hesitant.

How big will cuts be overall?

• Typical increments: Most central banks trim in 25 basis point (0.25%) increments when they move off a restrictive stance — that’s the default, conservative path. Some officials occasionally argue for 50-bp moves, but those are the exception. Expect cumulative easing of a few hundred basis points through 2026 in the most dovish scenarios, but the pace will be gradual and data-dependent. (Evidence: public speeches and minutes emphasise 25-bp moderation and caution.) 

Key data and events to watch (these will decide the “when” and “how much”)

1. Core inflation prints (ex-food, ex-energy) for each economy.

2. Labour market signals: payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth. Fed watches US payrolls closely. 

3. Central-bank minutes / speeches (they often telegraph the next step). x

4. Market pricing (fed funds futures, swaps) — gives you the consensus probability of meetings with cuts. 

Risks that could change the story fast

• Inflation re-accelerates because of energy shocks, food prices, or wage surprises → cuts delayed or reversed.

• Labour market stays strong → central banks hold.

• Geopolitical shocks (trade wars, supply disruptions) → risk premium and policy uncertainty.

• Financial instability (credit stress) could force faster cuts in some cases — but that’s conditional.

Practical, human advice (if you’re an investor or saver)

• If you’re a cash/savings person: cuts mean short-term deposit rates tend to fall. If you have a decent yield in a fixed-term product, consider whether to ladder rather than lock everything at current rates.

• If you’re a bond investor: early cuts typically push short rates down and flatten the front of the curve; long yields may fall if growth fears rise — a diversified duration approach can help.

• If you’re an equity investor: rate cuts can support risk assets, but breadth matters — earlier rallies in 2024–25 were concentrated in a few sectors. Look for companies with durable cashflows, not just rate sensitivity.

• Hedge with cash or options if you expect volatility — don’t assume cuts are guaranteed or that markets will only go up.

Bottom line

Central banks in late-2025 were leaning toward the start or continuation of gradual easing, typically 25-bp steps, with the Fed likely to move first (late October 2025 was widely discussed), the ECB and others watching for further disinflation, and the BoE and some EMs remaining more cautious. But the path is highly conditional on upcoming inflation and labour-market readings — so expect patience and small steps rather than quick, large cuts.

If you like, I can:

• pull the current CME FedWatch probabilities and show the exact market-implied odds for the October and December 2025 meetings; or

• make a short, customized checklist of 3-5 data releases to watch over the next 6 weeks for whichever central bank you care about (Fed / ECB / RBI).