data points matter most
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1. Inflation metrics (CPI, PCE, WPI) Why it matters: Inflation is like the thermostat central banks use to set interest rates. If inflation is cooling, the Fed, RBI, or ECB can cut rates — supportive for equities. If it re-accelerates, rate hikes or “higher for longer” policies follow — a headwind fRead more
1. Inflation metrics (CPI, PCE, WPI)
2. Labor market data (jobs reports, unemployment, wages)
3. Manufacturing & services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index)
4. Corporate earnings & forward guidance
5. Yield curve & credit markets
Why it matters: The bond market is often called “smarter” than equities because it reacts quickly to macro shifts.
Early warning power:
6. Consumer spending & confidence
7. Market internals & technical breadth
8. Geopolitical & commodity signals
9. Central bank communication (the “tone”)
10. Retail flow & speculative activity
The human takeaway
No single data point is a crystal ball, but together they form a mosaic. A good investor’s early-warning system blends:
It’s like flying a plane: no one gauge tells the whole story, but if three or four needles swing red at the same time, you know turbulence is ahead.
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