What the exit polls are saying (in plain language)

• Multiple Indian outlets’ “poll of polls” summaries show the BJP-led NDA (with JD(U) and allies) ahead of the opposition Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left). A widely cited round-up pegs the NDA around the mid-140s in the 243-seat House firmly past the 122 mark needed to form government. 

• Hindi media roundups also talk up an even bigger margin, with some agencies projecting 150+ seats for the NDA. One specific Chanakya Strategies projection that’s being shared puts NDA roughly in the 130–138 range versus 100–108 for the opposition still a clear NDA edge.

• The narrative across live blogs (NDTV, Deccan Herald, Moneycontrol) is consistent: “NDA sweep/comfortable win,” with Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj expected to have limited seat impact. 

• Not everyone agrees at least one survey highlighted by Mint bucks the trend and hints at an INDIA bloc win so treat the consensus as strong, but not unanimous. 

Why the “NDA is cruising” story gained traction

• Turnout optics: Bihar registered record participation (≈67%), including a very high final-phase turnout. High energy at the booths tends to embolden whichever side already looks ascendant in exit poll chatter. Whether high turnout favors change or continuity is contested, but the optics help the front-runner.

• Alliance arithmetic: The NDA’s seat-sharing (BJP + JD(U) + smaller allies such as LJP (Ram Vilas) and HAM) gives it broad geographic coverage. Several polls also note a “notable” showing for Chirag Paswan’s party within the alliance.

• Issue salience vs. leadership: Despite unemployment and governance concerns raised during the campaign, much coverage framed the contest as a test of NDA’s state and national leadership brands which historically convert well under first-past-the-post when the opposition is fragmented seat-by-seat. 

Where the opposition stands (and why some are skeptical of the polls)

• Opposition pushback: RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and other leaders publicly rejected the projections, alleging bias and insisting that “votes for change” will show up only on counting day. Some opposition voices even predict a hung House. These counter-claims are part politics, part reminder that exit polls can miss under-the-radar shifts. 

• The outlier factor: At least one survey contradicts the herd, which historically is when you should keep an open mind Bihar has surprised pundits before.

What to watch next (beyond the headline)

1. Seat split inside NDA: If JD(U) and BJP both do well, expect quick clarity on Nitish Kumar’s leadership and portfolio bargaining; if one partner hugely outperforms the other, that will shape the power balance for the term. (Exit-poll roundups don’t fully agree on the intra-alliance split.) 

2. The “Paswan effect”: If LJP(RV) converts vote share into seats, it could become a pivotal ally in agenda-setting for specific welfare and quota demands that matter in Bihar.

3. Geography & margins: Even with a big topline, narrow victory margins can swing dozens of seats on counting day—especially in multi-cornered fights. (That’s why outliers still matter.) 

Reality check: exit polls aren’t results

• Timing & methodology: These projections were released after Phase 2 voting (Nov 11) and updated into Nov 12. They rely on sample interviews and modeling—useful, but imperfect. Official counting is on 14 November 2025. 

• Historical misses: India has seen both accurate calls and notable misses (state-wise). In close fights, small errors in swing estimation can flip 20–30 seats quickly.

Bottom line (human, not just numbers)

If you’re asking, “Does the mood music point to an NDA government and a rough night for the opposition?”the honest answer is yes, that’s the dominant signal right now. Most outlets’ compilations say the NDA crosses the majority line comfortably, some by a lot. But elections are decided at the booth level, and Bihar’s politics can turn on fine caste arithmetic, local candidate strength, and last-mile turnout things surveys sometimes blur. So celebrate or commiserate after the ECI tables start filling on the 14th; until then, treat the exit polls as a strong hint, not the final word.